Weather and Water: Improving Flash Flood Predictions
Vanessa Robledo, a second-year PhD student in civil and environmental engineering (CEE), is helping improve the Iowa Flood Center’s abilities to better forecast flash flood events. Building on her master’s studies in meteorology from Medellin, Colombia, her research focuses on improving methods for predicting weather patterns to enhance flood forecasting.
Driven by a desire to make a societal impact, Robledo sought out opportunities to deepen her expertise in the field. She connected with Humberto Vergara, a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations at the University of Oklahoma, who received a NASA grant to advance flood prediction methodologies using innovative meteorological modeling approaches for West Africa.
Vergara immediately recognized Robledo’s potential and brought her onboard the project, initiating a collaborative journey that would take them both across continents in search of the ideal academic environment to support and grow their groundbreaking research. The University of Iowa soon proved to be the perfect fit for their research goals. IIHR—Hydroscience and Engineering’s (IIHR) long-standing excellence in hydrologic research combined with the resources and expertise available at the Iowa Flood Center, provided an exceptional fit for their work. Vergara joined the faculty in civil and environmental engineering as an assistant professor and IIHR research engineer in 2023, bringing Robledo along to continue their work together.
Now at Iowa, Robledo is deeply immersed in the NASA-funded project, working under Vergara with a dedicated team of about four students. Their research focuses on studying the dynamics and characteristics of rainstorms using a tracking approach developed by Robledo. Through this tracking method, they can identify different types of rainstorms, determine when and where they occur, and analyze their preferred movement patterns. By integrating this information into predictive models, they aim to enhance the accuracy of precipitation forecasts, potentially delivering earlier and more reliable flood warnings to communities at risk.
“I hope that our work will improve early warning systems,” says Robledo. “The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) is the hydrologic model we’re working on right now to predict and forecast flash floods. We’re studying the atmosphere alongside it to better predict how much precipitation certain storms are causing.”
Robledo’s work not only contributes to the scientific understanding of storm formation but also has significant practical implications. Improved flood forecasting can lead to better prepared communities, more effective disaster response strategies, and reducing the loss of life and property during extreme weather events. Their team’s research is a testament to the power of international collaboration and the impact that passionate, driven individuals can have on addressing some of the world’s most pressing challenges.